Wednesday, September 24, 2008

NIFTY_VIEWS_post

As per the graph Nifty will face strong resistance around 4310-4320 level and downside tgt could be 3550-3500 if 3800-3790 level keep ur fingures crossed and strictly follow the levels u will gain if technicals really works(which have been working till now)!!!!
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Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Cycle of any market

“Once upon a time there was a small island nation. The territory and of this nation was comprised entirely of the island itself. The total money in circulation in the country was £2 as there were only two £1 coins in circulation.
There were only 3 citizens of this country, all of who lived on the island. Citizen A owned the land and citizens B and C each owned £1.
The following event came to pass:
1) B decided to purchase the land from A for £1. So, A and C now each owned £1 while B owned a piece of land that is worth £1.
The net assets of the country were £3.
2) C thought that since there is only one piece of land in the country and considering land is non-producible asset, its value must definitely go up. So he borrowed £1 from A and, together with his own pound, he bought the land from B for £2.
A has a loan to C of £1, so his net assets were £1.B sold his land and received £2, so his net assets were £2.C owned the land worth £2 but with his £1 debt to A, his net assets were £1.
The net assets of the country were £4.
3) A saw that the land he once owned had risen in value, and regretted selling it. Luckily, he had loaned £1 to C. He then borrowed £2 from B and and acquired the land back from C for £3. The payment was by £2 cash (borrowed) and cancellation of the £1 loan to C.
A now owned the land that is worth £3. But since he owed B £2, his net asset was £1.B had loaned £2 to A. So his net asset was £2 in the form of B’s debt.C now had the 2 pound coins. His net asset was also £2.
The net assets of the country was £5.
4) B saw that the value of land kept rising. He also wanted to own the land. So he bought the land from A for £4. The payment was by borrowing £2 from C and cancellation of his £2 loan to A.
A now had his debt cleared and he obtained the £2 coins. His net asset was £2.B owned a piece of land that is worth £4 but since he had a debt of £2 to C, his net assets were £2.C loaned £2 to B, his net assets were £2.
The net asset of the country were £6. Even though, the country had only one piece of land and £2 in circulation.
5) Everybody had increased there worth and everybody felt happy and prosperous.
6) One day an evil notion entered into the mind of C. “What if the land price stop going up, how could B repay my loan. After all there are only £2 in circulation in our economy, I think that the land that B owns is probably only worth £1 at the most”.
C discussed his idea with A, who after some thought, agreed.
7) Shortly afterwards nobody wanted to buy land.
A owned the 2 pound coins, his net assets were £2.B owed C £2 and the land he owned which he thought was worth £4 was now worth only £1. His net assets became £1 debt, so negative.C owns the £2 debt of B. B is unable to pay this, so it is a bad debt. Although his net asset is still £2, he was getting a little nervous.
The net asset of the country were £3 again.
Who had stolen the £3 from the good citizen of this country? Of course, before step 7 B thought his land worth £4. Actually, right up to just before the collapse, the net assets of the country were £6 on paper. B His still owns £2 of bad debt.
The net asset of the country were £3 again.
8 ) B had no choice but to declare bankruptcy. C acquired the land from B so to recuperate his £2 of bad debt from B. The was now worth £1.
A owns the 2 pound coins, his net assets are £2.B is bankrupt, his net assets are zero.C ended up with a land worth only £1 (C lost £1)The net assets of the country are £3.
The End
The moral of the story: there is a redistribution of wealth.
A is the winner,B is the loser,C is lucky to be spared.
1) When a bubble is building up the debt within a country also builds up.
2) The island is a closed system where no other countries are involved and hence there is no foreign debt. The worth of the asset (land) can only be calculated using the island’s own currency. Hence, there is no net loss. This is not the case in an open system, where there can be net loss.
3) An over-damped system is assumed when the bubble bursts, the land’s value did not go down to below £1.
4) When the bubble burst, the person with cash wins. Those owning the land or extending loans to others lose. Their assets shrink or in worst case, they go bankrupt.
5) If there is another citizen D either holding a pound or another piece of land who declines to take part in the speculation he will neither win nor lose. But he will see the value of his money or land go up and down.
6) When the bubble is in the growing phase, everybody makes money.
7) If you know that you are living in a growing bubble, it is worthwhile to borrow money (like A) and take part in the speculation. But you must know when you should change everything back to cash.
8 ) The above applies to stock and commodities as well.
9) The worth of the particular assets depends largely on psychology.”

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Power of Compounding

How much can you make in 25+ years by just investing Rs.10,000 initially in any of financial instruments ?
Let us look at the real time example…
If you have subscribed in 100 shares of ________ company with a face value of Rs. 100 in 1980…
In 1981 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 200 shares
In 1985 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 400 shares
In 1986 company split the share to Rs. 10 = you have 4,000 shares
In 1987 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 8,000 shares
In 1989 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 16,000 shares
In 1992 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 32,000 shares
In 1995 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 64,000 shares
In 1997 company declared 1:2 bonus = you have 1,92,000 shares
In 1999 company split the share to Rs. 2 = you have 9,60,000 shares
In 2004 company declared 1:2 bonus = you have 28,80,000 shares
In 2005 company declared 1:1 bonus = you have 57,60,000 shares
At the end of 2005…
You have 57,60,000 shares of the company
Any guess about the company ? Its an Indian company
Any guess about the present valuation ?
The result of ‘Power of Compounding’
Your present valuation is about
Rs. 200 Cr.+ & The company is ‘WIPRO’